I. Molybdenum Market: Widening Supply-Demand Gap and Upward Price Trend
1. Rigid Constraints on the Supply Side
Sluggish Global Molybdenum Supply Growth: Global molybdenum supply is expected to grow by only 1%-2% in 2026, with no significant new capacity coming online. China, the largest producer, will see new capacity (e.g., Jinzhai Shapinggou molybdenum mine) come online only in the second half of 2027. Existing mines face challenges such as environmental regulations, declining ore grades, and rising costs, limiting production growth.
Limited Overseas Supply Growth: Overseas molybdenum supply primarily relies on copper-molybdenum by-product mines (e.g., in Chile and Peru). However, declining copper ore grades, water shortages, and labor disputes frequently disrupt molybdenum by-product output, with risks of even declines.
Policy Restrictions on Supply: China’s Ministry of Natural Resources reduced the total molybdenum mining output control quota in 2025, with policy effects persisting into 2026, directly constraining supply volumes.
2. Structural Growth on the Demand Side
Explosive Demand in Electric Vehicles and New Energy Sectors:
Wind Power: Surging installed capacity drives demand for high-performance molybdenum-containing special steels used in key components such as wind turbine main shafts and gearboxes.
Photovoltaics: Demand for high-purity molybdenum sputtering targets for coating applications explodes, with HJT battery technology requiring ultra-high-purity molybdenum targets, boosting high-end molybdenum demand.
Defense and Military: Known as the “war metal,” molybdenum is used in armor, missiles, warships, and other critical components, with geopolitical tensions driving rigid demand growth in the military sector.
Upgrading Demand in Traditional Sectors: Aerospace, automotive lightweighting, and high-end equipment manufacturing continue to drive demand for molybdenum-containing alloy steels and stainless steels, with strong demand rigidity.
3. Price Trends
Supply-Demand Gap Supports Price Increases: The global molybdenum market is expected to face a supply-demand gap of 44,300 to 50,000 metric tons in 2026, pushing the molybdenum price center upward, potentially surpassing RMB 400,000 per ton.
Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Uptrend: Early 2026 may see oscillations or minor corrections due to the steel off-season and influx of low-priced imported materials, but prices are expected to rise steadily in the medium to long term as the supply-demand gap widens.
II. Copper Market: Tight Supply-Demand Balance, with Electric Vehicle Demand as a Key Variable
1. Supply Side: Tight Mine Supply and Stable Refining Output
Strengthening Constraints on Global Copper Mine Supply: Global copper mine supply growth is projected at just 1.2% in 2026, with limited project increments, low production growth rates, and a widening supply-demand gap. Frequent mine disruptions (e.g., Grasberg mine accident, community conflicts in Chile) further exacerbate supply tightness.
Limited Growth in Refining Capacity: While domestic recycled copper imports remain resilient, a narrowing scrap-to-primary price spread constrains raw material supply. Overseas refining output grows slowly, and domestic electrolytic copper production growth decelerates, resulting in a “tight mine supply, stable refining” landscape.
2. Demand Side: Synergistic Growth in Traditional and Emerging Sectors
Explosive Demand from Electric Vehicles:
Surging Copper Usage per Vehicle: New energy vehicles (NEVs) use 80–120 kg of copper per vehicle, 4–5 times that of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, primarily for “three major electric” systems (batteries, motors, and controllers).
Global Sales Growth Drives Demand: Global NEV sales are expected to exceed 40 million units in 2026, adding approximately 500,000 metric tons of copper demand. China, as the largest NEV market, is projected to sell over 15 million units, contributing over 900,000 metric tons of new copper demand, accounting for 60%+ of global demand growth.
Growth in Emerging Sectors:
Renewable Energy and Grid Upgrades: Each GW of photovoltaic capacity consumes 5,000 metric tons of copper, with global new PV installations exceeding 300 GW in 2026, driving massive copper demand. Energy storage systems consume 800 metric tons of copper per GWh, with rapid global energy storage expansion further boosting demand.
AI Data Centers: Copper’s high conductivity and thermal dissipation properties make it essential for AI data centers. A single AI server consumes 6–10 times more power than a conventional server, with copper usage per AI data center rack reaching hundreds of kilograms. Large-scale AI supercomputing centers consume up to 1,200 metric tons of copper, double that of traditional data centers.
Resilient Demand in Traditional Sectors: While short-term price fluctuations may cause minor adjustments in copper consumption in air conditioners and cables—key copper consumers—positive year-on-year growth in home air conditioner production schedules and sustained long-term demand from grid construction projects ensure resilience.
3. Price Trends
Tight Supply-Demand Balance Supports Price Increases: The global copper market is expected to face a supply-demand gap of 130,000 metric tons in 2026, pushing the copper price center upward. JPMorgan forecasts an average copper price of USD 11,464 per ton in 2026, up over 15% year-on-year, while Huatai Securities predicts copper prices could surge above USD 15,000 per ton by 2026–2028.
Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Uptrend: Early 2026 may see oscillations due to geopolitical conflicts and a hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy, but prices are expected to rise steadily in the medium to long term as the supply-demand gap widens and macroeconomic conditions improve.
III. Impact of Electric Vehicle Demand and Supply Chains on Molybdenum and Copper Prices
1. Electric Vehicle Demand Drives Concurrent Price Increases for Molybdenum and Copper
Molybdenum: Rising demand for high-performance molybdenum-containing special steels in electric vehicle lightweighting and high-end equipment manufacturing exacerbates the molybdenum supply-demand gap, supporting price increases.
Copper: The substantial increase in copper usage per electric vehicle, coupled with global NEV sales growth, becomes the primary driver of copper demand growth, pushing prices upward.
2. Influence of Supply Chain Stability on Prices
Molybdenum Supply Chain: Global molybdenum resources are highly concentrated, with China, the U.S., Peru, Chile, and Canada accounting for 88.7% of total reserves. Policy changes in resource countries (e.g., export controls, tax adjustments) and mine disruptions (e.g., strikes, accidents) may affect molybdenum supply stability, exacerbating price volatility.
Copper Supply Chain: The global copper mine exploration and development cycle spans 5–8 years, with slow new capacity releases. Declining ore grades at major mines and frequent geopolitical disruptions in producing regions further suppress supply elasticity. China, which relies on imports for over 75% of its copper concentrate needs, faces supply gaps that directly benefit upstream resource companies but may also cause significant price volatility due to supply chain instability.
3. Impact of Geopolitics and Trade Policies
Molybdenum: Major economies such as China, the U.S., and the EU classify molybdenum as a critical mineral, strengthening resource controls and trade protectionism. This may reshape global molybdenum trade patterns, exacerbate supply tightness, and drive price increases.
Copper: Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., U.S.-Iran tensions) may push up international oil prices, intensifying global inflationary pressures and affecting copper mining and refining costs, thereby driving prices higher. Meanwhile, trade policy changes (e.g., tariff adjustments, export controls) may disrupt copper supply chain stability, amplifying price volatility.
