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I. Analysis of the Historical Price Trends of Molybdenum Sheets

Long-term Fluctuations: Molybdenum prices have undergone multiple cyclical fluctuations since 1970. In the early stages, influenced by the oil crisis and inflation, the international molybdenum oxide price reached $9.1perpoundin1980;subsequently,duetoovercapacity,itfellto$3.1 per pound in 1985. After 2000, with the boom in infrastructure and the steel industry, the international molybdenum oxide price rose to $15perpoundin2004andsurgedto$38-38.5 per pound in 2005. After the 2008 financial crisis, the price plummeted to $8-10perpound.In2016,supply-sidereformsdrovethepricebackupto$6.15 per pound, and in 2021, due to the launch of new energy demand, the price broke through $20 per pound.

Recent Performance: In March 2023, the international molybdenum oxide price reached $27.08perpound(thesecond-highestinhistory),withdomesticferromolybdenumpricesrangingfrom280,000to300,000yuanperton;in2024,theaveragepricefellto$20.8 per pound, with domestic ferromolybdenum prices ranging from 250,000 to 280,000 yuan per ton; in 2025, prices surged and then fell, with the international molybdenum oxide average price ranging from $24to$27 per pound and domestic ferromolybdenum prices ranging from 247,000 to 293,000 yuan per ton; in March 2026, the international molybdenum oxide price stabilized at $27-27.25 per pound, with domestic ferromolybdenum prices ranging from 278,000 to 286,000 yuan per ton.

II. 2026 Forecast

Global molybdenum demand is estimated to be approximately 317,000 metric tons of metal, while supply is estimated to range from 272,700 metric tons (conservative estimate) to 312,000 metric tons (optimistic estimate), resulting in a supply-demand gap of 44,300 to 50,000 metric tons.

Market Impact: The supply-demand gap will support an upward shift in the molybdenum price center and may trigger a “highest bidder wins” buying frenzy.

In 2026, molybdenum sheet prices are expected to exhibit an upward-shifting and high-level oscillation trend, with the annual average price possibly maintained within the range of 270,000 to 290,000 yuan per ton. The price may break through 300,000 yuan per ton in the third quarter, and the international molybdenum oxide average price is expected to be within the range of $25to$27 per pound. The following is a detailed forecast and analysis of molybdenum sheet prices in 2026:

III. Current Market Situation and Trends

Upward Shift in Price Center: Supported by the supply-demand gap, the molybdenum price center in 2026 is expected to shift upward compared to 2025, with the annual average price possibly maintained within the range of 270,000 to 290,000 yuan per ton.

Quarterly Price Trends:

• First Quarter: Affected by post-holiday restocking, molybdenum prices are expected to oscillate upward, with the average price possibly ranging from 265,000 to 275,000 yuan per ton.
• Second Quarter: As steel mill restocking comes to an end, molybdenum prices may experience a slight correction, with a correction range of approximately 5-8%, and the average price may fall back to the range of 260,000 to 270,000 yuan per ton.
• Third Quarter: Affected by the peak season for new energy and special steel, molybdenum prices are expected to break through the 300,000 yuan per ton mark, and in optimistic scenarios, they may even reach 320,000 to 350,000 yuan per ton.
• Fourth Quarter: Amid high-level oscillations, molybdenum prices are expected to be maintained within the range of 280,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton.

IV. Market Supply-Demand Pattern

Supply Side:

• Sluggish Growth: Global molybdenum supply exhibits a “rigid” characteristic. As the largest producer, China’s new capacity in 2026 (such as the Jinzhai Shapinggou molybdenum mine) is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2027. Existing mines are experiencing slowed production growth due to environmental protection inspections, declining ore grades, and rising costs.
• Overseas Constraints: Overseas molybdenum supply increments mainly come from the ramp-up of the Teck Resources QB2 project, but frequent disruptions such as declining copper ore grades, water shortages, and strikes limit overall increments.
• Policy Impact: In 2025, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources lowered the total production control quota for molybdenum mines, aiming to protect scarce resources and directly limiting supply volume.

Demand Side:

• Traditional Upgrades: The global steel industry is transforming towards high-end and green development, with sustained growth in demand for molybdenum-containing alloy steel and stainless steel in aerospace, automotive lightweighting, and high-end equipment manufacturing.
• Emerging Boom: The surge in wind power installations drives demand for high-performance molybdenum-containing special steel, while the demand for high-purity molybdenum targets for photovoltaic coatings grows explosively.
• Defense and Military: As a “war metal,” molybdenum is widely used in key components such as armor, missiles, and warships, with geopolitical tensions driving rigid growth in demand in the military sector.
• Other Fields: Emerging industries such as hydrogen energy catalysts and semiconductors continuously expand the application scenarios of molybdenum.

Supply-Demand Gap:

V. Supply-Demand Gap Supports Prices

Supply-Demand Gap Forecast: According to authoritative institution calculations, the global molybdenum market supply-demand gap in 2026 is expected to be between 44,300 and 50,000 metric tons. This gap will directly support an upward shift in the molybdenum price center and may trigger market buying frenzies.

Supply-Side Analysis: Global molybdenum resource supply remains tight, with slow release of new capacity. Meanwhile, due to exchange rate fluctuations and changes in import costs, traders’ import willingness is divided, further exacerbating the tightness in the spot market.

Demand-Side Analysis: With the rapid development of new energy, special steel, and other industries, molybdenum demand continues to grow. Especially in fields such as wind power and photovoltaics, molybdenum, as a key raw material, is expected to see a significant increase in demand volume.

VI. International Market Linkage Impact

International Molybdenum Price Trends: International molybdenum prices are currently showing a steady upward trend, with both domestic and international prices pushing each other higher. European ferromolybdenum prices are also rising simultaneously, indicating the resilience of overseas market demand.

Domestic-International Resonance Effect: Domestic molybdenum prices are supported by the rise in international prices, coupled with favorable domestic macro policies (such as the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain stable interest rates and domestic consumption promotion policies), forming a “domestic-international resonance” effect that pushes prices higher.

VII. Medium- to Long-Term Upward Trend

2027-2028 Forecast: According to forecasts, in 2027, ferromolybdenum prices may range from 290,000 to 320,000 yuan per ton, with a possible high of 330,000 yuan per ton; molybdenum concentrate prices may range from 4,600 to 5,200 yuan per metric ton degree. In 2028, ferromolybdenum prices may further rise to the range of 300,000 to 350,000 yuan per ton, with a possible high of 350,000 yuan per ton; the supply-demand gap may expand to 57,000 metric tons, with a tight balance continuing.

Persistent Structural Shortage: From 2026 to 2030, the structural shortage in the molybdenum market is expected to persist. This will support a continuous upward shift in the molybdenum price center and may trigger significant price fluctuations in the market.