The global demand for molybdenum metal in 2026 is approximately 317,000 metric tons, which indirectly reflects the overall market size for molybdenum rods. Below is a detailed analysis:
Total Demand
According to authoritative forecasts, global molybdenum metal demand in 2026 is expected to reach around 317,000 metric tons. This figure encompasses the total demand for various molybdenum products, including molybdenum rods, ferro-molybdenum, and ammonium molybdate.
As a type of molybdenum product, the demand for molybdenum rods is influenced by the overall global demand for molybdenum metal, as well as factors such as the proportion of molybdenum rods among all molybdenum products and demand growth in their application sectors.
Drivers of Demand Growth
- Stable Demand in Traditional Sectors: The steel industry is the primary consumer of molybdenum rods. With steady growth in the global steel sector, demand for molybdenum rods remains stable.
- Explosive Growth in Emerging Sectors: The rapid development of emerging industries such as photovoltaics (PV), wind power, and new energy vehicles has driven a surge in demand for high-performance molybdenum materials. For example, demand for high-purity molybdenum targets used in PV coating has grown explosively, while the rapid increase in wind power installations has boosted demand for high-performance molybdenum-containing special steels.
- Growth in Defense and Military Demand: Molybdenum, known as the “war metal,” is widely used in critical components such as armor, missiles, and warships. With rising global geopolitical tensions and increased defense budgets worldwide, demand for molybdenum rods in the military sector continues to grow steadily.
Supply-Demand Gap and Price Support
The global supply-demand gap for molybdenum metal in 2026 is projected to range between 44,300 and 50,000 metric tons. This supply shortage will provide strong support for molybdenum rod prices.
The widening supply-demand gap is primarily due to sluggish growth on the supply side, including stricter environmental policies, declining ore grades, and rising mining costs, which have constrained molybdenum ore production growth.
Price Analysis of Molybdenum Rods (as of April 2026)
I. Current Price Levels
Domestic Market
- Hot-Rolled Molybdenum Rods: Priced between RMB 250,000 and RMB 350,000 per metric ton, with prices showing a steady upward trend recently due to rising raw material costs and increased demand.
- Carbon Molybdenum Rods: Priced at approximately RMB 100 to RMB 300 per kilogram domestically, with lower prices for products from large steel enterprises and higher prices for premium brands.
- Subcategories:
- Ferro-Molybdenum (FeMo60-C): Spot cash prices in early April 2026 ranged from RMB 281,000 to RMB 285,000 per metric ton, with some enterprise transaction prices reaching RMB 280,000 to RMB 283,000 per metric ton.
- Molybdenum Concentrate (45%+ grade): Bidding prices at mines on April 7, 2026, ranged from RMB 4,510 to RMB 4,530 per tonne degree (cash-to-acceptance), with bidding base prices ranging from RMB 4,430 to RMB 4,450 per tonne degree.
International Market
- Prices for hot-rolled molybdenum rods abroad are typically 10% to 20% higher than domestic prices, ranging from RMB 300,000 to RMB 400,000 per metric ton. Price fluctuations are more frequent due to international supply chain shortages and increased demand.
II. Price Fluctuation Trends
Short-Term Fluctuations (Q2 2026)
- High-Level Consolidation: Supported by a global supply-demand gap (approximately 10,000 to 13,000 metric tons per quarter) and low inventories (only 18,000 metric tons), molybdenum prices are expected to remain firm in April, dip slightly by 5% to 8% in May due to weaker demand during the off-season, and rebound in June with pre-season stockpiling for the peak season.
- Regional Variations: Prices for molybdenum rods in East China range from RMB 120 to RMB 150 per kilogram, in South China from RMB 130 to RMB 160 per kilogram, in North China from RMB 125 to RMB 155 per kilogram, and in Southwest China from RMB 135 to RMB 165 per kilogram.
Long-Term Trends (Full Year 2026)
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: Global molybdenum supply in 2026 is estimated at approximately 272,700 metric tons (a year-on-year increase of 0.7%), while demand is projected at around 317,000 metric tons (a year-on-year increase of 3.2%), resulting in a supply-demand gap rate of 13% to 16% and pushing price levels upward.
- Cost Support: Molybdenum concentrate prices have surged from approximately RMB 3,900 per tonne degree at the beginning of the year to RMB 4,800 per tonne degree in April (a 13-year high), with high ferro-molybdenum costs (approximately RMB 283,000 per metric ton) supporting terminal prices.
III. Drivers of Price Fluctuations
Supply Side
- Domestic Constraints: Stricter environmental policies, mine maintenance, and tightened quotas have led to a slight month-on-month decline in Chinese supply (accounting for 42% to 46% of global supply).
- Overseas Disruptions: Production halts at Chile’s Ventanas mine, a 30% reduction in output at Peru’s Cuajone mine, and geopolitical conflicts in Iran affecting exports have tightened global supply.
- No New Capacity: No large-scale new mines are expected to come online in 2026, with expansion cycles requiring 3 to 5 years.
Demand Side
- Traditional Sectors: Demand for special steels/stainless steels remains stable with slight declines (as steel mills rest after off-season stockpiling).
- Emerging Sectors:
- Demand for PV HJT targets has increased by 60% year-on-year.
- Pre-season stockpiling is underway for wind power and ultra-high-voltage applications ahead of the peak season.
- Military demand has surged by 45%, while semiconductor demand (AI/advanced processes) has grown by 50%.
Inventories and Costs
- Global molybdenum inventories stand at only 18,000 metric tons (a stock-to-consumption ratio of approximately 5.7%, a historical low), with strong mine hoarding sentiment supporting prices.
- High energy prices and limited capacity releases have driven up molybdenum concentrate costs, further transmitting to molybdenum rod prices.
IV. Risks and Challenges
- Seasonal Demand Fluctuations: Weaker procurement by steel mills during the off-season may suppress price gains.
- High Prices Suppressing Demand: Some low-end application sectors may reduce purchases due to cost pressures.
- Geopolitical Risks: Resumption of production at overseas mines or easing of geopolitical tensions may alleviate supply tightness.
- Exchange Rate Fluctuations: International market prices are influenced by exchange rates, increasing procurement uncertainty.
V. Industry Recommendations
Procurement Strategies
- Short-Term: Stock up at lows in April, exercise caution during the off-season in May, and prepare for the peak season in June.
- Long-Term: Sign long-term agreements to lock in prices and diversify supply risks.
Risk Management
- Monitor domestic and overseas mine dynamics and adjust procurement plans promptly.
- Utilize futures instruments to hedge against price volatility risks.
Market Monitoring
- Track prices of upstream products such as molybdenum concentrate and ferro-molybdenum to anticipate cost transmission trends.
- Analyze the pulling effect of emerging sector demand (e.g., PV, semiconductors) on molybdenum rod consumption.