The European molybdenum market has been tight in recent months. CRU estimates that EU molybdenum prices recently rose from $26/ kg in October to $28.4 – $28.9/ kg in November, although some of the high volume prices fell slightly in mid-October. In contrast, iron molybdenum and molybdenum oxide prices in Europe have been volatile recently. The price of molybdenum oxide fluctuates between $8.5 and $8.7 per pound and ferromolybdenum between $9.5 and $9.7 per pound. In Mid-October, iron molybdenum and molybdenum oxide prices recovered slightly due to a drop in inventories and the end of the Chinese holiday.
However, in November, molybdenum oxide prices fell due to weak Chinese demand and falling prices. Looking ahead, CRU expects the European molybdenum market to remain firm. Currently, the cost of supplementing molybdenum from China in the region is us $31 ~ us $32 / kg. And that could be a market high. But based on the current market demand for molybdenum metal may not be able to reach this level.
On the contrary, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate and the lack of demand caused by domestic production cuts may cause many Chinese ferromolybdenum and molybdenum oxide producers to seek different markets for sales during the winter months. This will also lead to the European molybdenum oxide market price sluggish. Chinese manufacturers try every means to find other markets to sell their products. In particular, the EU-china carry trade has risen steadily since July.
Recently, the market price of molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum in the United States remained stable and slightly weakened. Both prices fell slightly. In early October, iron molybdenum prices gradually consolidated. So some sellers cut their offers. Besides, the molybdenum oxide market appears to be pricing in a slight weakness. The seller attempted to unload his stock. Although the North American market molybdenum price some weak, the U.S. market sentiment is still relatively positive.
There are even some industry reports that the molybdenum oxide market is short of immediate supply. Besides, the strength of China’s molybdenum concentrate market price directly drives many market operators to predict a more active market in the future. Domestic crude steel output after a slight decline in early October tends to rise. Moreover, the U.S. market is usually relatively isolated from China’s ferromolybdenum and molybdenum oxide exports, so it is estimated that the weak price in China will have a negative impact on the U.S. market.