The molybdenum concentrate market continued its upward trajectory during the week ending April 27, 2025, with spot transaction prices for 45%-50% grade molybdenum concentrate surging past RMB 3,400/tonne unit, marking a significant milestone amid tightening supply-demand dynamics. Industry analysts predict sustained price gains as procurement activity intensifies and suppliers adopt a “hold-and-wait” pricing strategy.
Price Surge Driven by Robust Demand and Tightening Supply
Market data from April 27 reveals that spot transactions for 45%-50% grade molybdenum concentrate closed between RMB 3,450-3,480/tonne unit, up approximately RMB 30/tonne unit from the previous week. This surge followed a steady climb from RMB 3,370-3,400/tonne unit on April 24, with prices breaking the RMB 3,400 threshold for the first time this year. Suppliers attributed the rally to heightened purchasing activity from steel mills, particularly ahead of the May Day holiday, coupled with limited willingness among miners to offload inventory at discounted rates.
Global Market Dynamics Amplify Upside Momentum
International markets further fueled the rally, with European molybdenum iron prices stabilizing at USD 47.75-47.8/kg Mo, while global oxidation molybdenum prices hovered at USD 20-20.2/lb Mo. This alignment between domestic and global pricing trends underscored the resilience of demand fundamentals. China’s stainless steel sector, a key consumer of molybdenum, posted a 15.47% year-on-year increase in exports to 1.226 million tonnes in Q1 2025, offsetting a 25.86% decline in imports to 450,800 tonnes. The resulting net export surge of 775,200 tonnes—a 70.88% YoY jump—signaled robust end-user demand, particularly for high-grade alloyed steels.
Steel Mill Tenders Bolster Market Confidence
Steel mill tender volumes remained robust, with leading producers such as Qingshan Holding Group, Zhejiang Dongte, and Shanxi Taigang actively securing molybdenum iron supplies. The average tender price for molybdenum iron climbed to RMB 223,000-226,000/tonne, up from RMB 218,000-221,000/tonne in late April. This upward adjustment reflects steelmakers’ willingness to absorb higher raw material costs to secure supply amid tightening availability.
Supply-Side Constraints Intensify Price Pressure
On the supply front, miners maintained a cautious stance, withholding inventory to capitalize on rising prices. This strategy, combined with seasonal production constraints in key molybdenum-producing regions like Jilin and Inner Mongolia, exacerbated supply tightness. Industry sources reported that several mid-sized mines reduced spot market offerings, prioritizing long-term contracts with major steel producers.
Outlook: Near-Term Bullishness Persists, Though Downside Risks Linger
Market participants remain optimistic about near-term price trajectories, with forecasts pointing to a test of the RMB 3,500/tonne unit threshold. However, lingering concerns over steel price weakness—with domestic rebar prices declining 0.5% WoW—could cap molybdenum price gains. Analysts caution that a sustained downturn in steel margins may prompt steelmakers to delay procurement or seek lower-priced alternatives, potentially disrupting the current rally.
The molybdenum concentrate market’s breakout above RMB 3,400/tonne unit signals a strengthening bullish phase, driven by synchronized demand growth across domestic and global markets. While near-term upside appears assured, industry stakeholders must monitor steel sector dynamics and evolving trade policies to gauge the sustainability of price gains.